Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has introduced a sweeping proposal to overhaul the nation’s Customs Law as part of the 2027 Economic Package. The legislative move, which marks the second consecutive year of aggressive regulatory tightening, seeks to aggressively curb merchandise undervaluation and bolster tax revenue. However, the proposal has ignited a firestorm of criticism from trade experts and industry leaders who fear the changes will stifle supply chains and jeopardize the rights of compliant taxpayers.
Closing the Valuation Gap
Currently, the National Customs Agency of Mexico (ANAM) is limited in its power to intervene in import operations. Authorities can only initiate a precautionary seizure of goods if the declared value of an item is at least 50% lower than the transaction value of similar or identical merchandise. The administration argues this threshold has created a significant loophole, preventing officials from acting even when substantial discrepancies are evident.
According to data from ANAM covering January 2025 to August 2026, over 2,500 import operations—valued at nearly US$92.56 million—escaped seizure despite being identified as undervalued, simply because the discrepancy did not meet the 50% mandate. The new proposal would eliminate this threshold entirely. Under the revised Article 144, customs authorities would be empowered to launch Administrative Customs Procedures (PAMA) and conduct audits the moment a declared value deviates from reference values by any amount.
Industry Fears Operational Gridlock
The prospect of “zero-tolerance” valuation has raised alarms across the logistics and manufacturing sectors. Industry analysts, including representatives from the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) Mexico, warn that the change could lead to massive bottlenecks at ports and border crossings.
Because the reform allows for automated triggering of investigations for even minor discrepancies, critics argue that customs warehouses could quickly become saturated with seized cargo, bringing cross-border trade to a standstill. Furthermore, tax specialists point out that the government relies on internal, often opaque, databases to determine “comparative values.” By stripping away the 50% safety buffer, the legislation grants officials immense discretion, potentially allowing them to compare high-end goods against budget brands, which could unfairly penalize legitimate importers who utilize standard volume discounts or inventory clearances.
Compliance Costs and Technology Integration
The debate also touches on the broader challenges of modernizing customs enforcement. While the executive branch frames this as a necessary step to protect domestic manufacturers from unfair competition, critics argue the bill ignores the nuances of modern, high-speed global trade.
In an era where the logistics industry is increasingly turning to AI-driven predictive modeling and blockchain for supply chain transparency, experts suggest that a blanket regulatory hammer may be the wrong tool. Instead of focusing on digitizing verification processes to catch systemic smuggling, the reform places the administrative burden squarely on legitimate businesses.
“It is a very aggressive reform that makes compliance harder for all taxpayers,” noted Gloria Estrada of the College of Public Accountants of Mexico. By removing the threshold, the government is essentially creating a scenario where any import—regardless of its validity—could become subject to an audit. As the Chamber of Deputies begins its review of the proposal, the business community is bracing for a tense legislative period, with many calling for a more surgical approach that distinguishes between intentional fraud and standard commercial operations. For multinational firms operating in Mexico, the uncertainty surrounding these potential audits adds a layer of risk that may force companies to reassess their inventory management and import strategies heading into 2027.
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