Whether or not the Pakistanis can broker a lasting deal when the two sides travel to Islamabad, the war and its consequences are reshaping the Middle East.
When they ordered the attack on Iran, both President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu said regime change in Iran was coming. It has not happened, despite the president’s attempt to frame the killing of senior Iranian leaders as the advent of a new regime.
Opponents of the Iranian regime inside the country who were hoping that it would fall will not be reassured by the way the war might be ending.
A regime that the US and Israel said would fall is now going to be a full partner in negotiations. Iran will be looking to strengthen its position. Only a few weeks ago Trump was demanding the regime’s unconditional surrender.
It is not at all clear how the Islamabad talks will differ from the Geneva talks that seemed to be making progress when the US and Israel renewed their war on Iran.
In Geneva, they were discussing a new deal on the nuclear file, including the fate of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium that could be used to make a nuclear weapon.
Another factor will be as high on the agenda in Islamabad – the Strait of Hormuz. It has become a new source of deterrence for Iran. If the US and Israel go back to war, Iran has shown it can easily block it, causing global economic damage.
Before 28 February international shipping could transit the strait freely.
Now Iran says that during the ceasefire it will once again allow ships to use the Strait, as long as their movements are coordinated with the Iranian military. It will want that arrangement to continue, and may also demand tolls from shippers, of the kind they pay to transit the Suez Canal.
Israel was not part of the diplomacy that led to the ceasefire. Netanyahu wanted to do more damage to the Islamic Republic. In an election year in Israel his political opponents, including the leader of opposition Yair Lapid have accused him of compromising Israel’s security. They are alarmed by the possibility that their tactical victories over Iran will not add up to a strategic advance.
China played a role in the run up to the ceasefire, which implies that it will also have a strong influence in the Islamabad talks. That will further strengthen its influence in the Middle East.
Trump’s language will also have consequences. It has damaged relations with allies, especially in NATO. It will be hard for British politicians to forget his abuse of Sir Keir Starmer and ridicule of the Royal Navy.
Gulf Arab states will not break with the US, but they will reassess their security relationships with America.
And the sight and sound of a US president embracing threats of acts that could amount to war crimes – including a potentially genocidal attack on an entire civilisation – has raised profound and alarming questions around the world about Trump’s attitude to law and morality.
