Iran-US war live: Tehran vows ‘heavy response’ if Israel doesn’t stop deadly barrage on Lebanon immediately

Israel is expected to scale back its attacks on Lebanon in an effort to preserve the ceasefire with Iran, US vice-president JD Vance has suggested.

Mr Vance said Israeli officials had indicated they were willing to “check themselves a little bit in Lebanon” to ensure ongoing negotiations succeed.

“They want to make sure that our negotiation is successful,” he said, signalling a possible de-escalation after strikes in Beirut raised fears of the ceasefire unravelling.

Tensions have persisted despite the truce, with Iran shutting the Strait of Hormuz and warning it could resume hostilities with the United States in response to Israeli attacks in Lebanon.

Washington has maintained that Lebanon is not covered under the ceasefire, even as Israel continues to target Hezbollah, which it describes as an Iranian proxy.

Mr Vance acknowledged there were disagreements over the scope of the deal.

“It’s a legitimate misunderstanding,” he said, adding that Iranian officials had believed the ceasefire extended to Lebanon “and it just didn’t”.

The vice-president, who is due to lead further talks alongside US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, also dismissed claims from a senior Iranian official that Washington had violated the agreement.

Iran has accused the US of breaching the ceasefire and earlier launched strikes on a key oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia, while Gulf states reported multiple drone attacks.

Donald Trump has warned US forces will remain “in, and around, Iran” with additional “ammunition, weaponry, and anything else that is appropriate and necessary” until a “REAL AGREEMENT” is fully complied with.

“If for any reason it is not… then the ‘shootin’ starts,’ bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before,” he wrote on Truth Social.

Mr Trump said it had long been agreed there would be “NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS” and that the Strait of Hormuz would remain “OPEN & SAFE”.

“In the meantime our great Military is Loading Up and Resting, looking forward… to its next Conquest,” he added.

Asian stocks turned cautious this morning as oil prices edged higher again, with investors reassessing risks from the fragile Gulf ceasefire.

Crude prices rose after a sharp drop yesterday, with US futures up 2.8 per cent to $96.99 a barrel and Brent gaining 2.1 per cent to $96.74, as uncertainty persisted over access through the Strait of Hormuz.

Asian equity markets lost momentum after a sharp rally in the previous session. Japan’s Nikkei hovered around flat, while South Korea slipped 0.4 per cent. A broader index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.3 per cent.

Futures for US stocks also dipped, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both down 0.2 per cent.

Investors remain wary that higher energy prices could feed into inflation, with oil still around 40 per cent above pre-conflict levels.

“You have a fifth of the world’s oil supply moving through a corridor that is still effectively under the influence of one of the parties to the conflict,” Nigel Green, CEO at deVere Group told Reuters. “That’s not stability.”

“You don’t need ​a ⁠full blockade to move oil markets sharply higher again,” he added. “Missiles are still being launched in the Gulf, Israel is still engaged on another front, and yet markets are behaving as though the region ⁠has normalised.”

There has been no meaningful change in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz despite the ceasefire, according to independent analysts.

Maritime intelligence firm Windward said 11 vessels transited the strait on 5 April – broadly unchanged from recent days and still well below normal levels.

Instead of recovering, traffic has shifted into a more controlled system, with vessels using two routes: a northern corridor under Iranian oversight and a newer southern pathway along the Omani coast.

Access remains restricted, with some ships operating without tracking signals, limiting visibility across the Gulf. Windward recorded hundreds of such “dark” movements, alongside continued security risks, including recent attacks on vessels.

Analysts said the situation is unlikely to stabilise quickly.

“The situation remains highly volatile, and despite the ceasefire, shipowners are unlikely to rush back into the Gulf to load fossil fuels,” Isaac Levi, senior analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, told The Independent.

Others said any recovery would depend on whether the ceasefire holds.

“If the cease-fire holds, which is a big if, it would allow loaded ships waiting in the Gulf to move quickly,” Andres Cala, geopolitical analyst at Montel, said.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have warned they will deliver a “regret-inducing response” if attacks on Lebanon continue, according to state media.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said strikes must stop “immediately”, in a message reported by state broadcaster Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting.

“If the aggressions against dear Lebanon are not brought to an immediate end we shall fulfil our duty and deliver a regret-inducing response to the malicious aggressors in the region,” the statement said.

State-run Islamic Republic News Agency also quoted an IRGC official as saying: “Any attack on the proud Hezbollah is an attack on Iran.”

“The [military] field is preparing a heavy response to the regime’s savage crimes,” the official added, referring to Israel.

HRANA reported at least 20 attacks across four provinces in Iran, with no records of people being killed or injured.

The zero recorded casualties “indicates a significant decrease compared with previous days”, the news agency said.

Iran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah has claimed attacks on Israel following a heavy Israeli bombardment on Lebanon.

Hezbollah said it had attacked Manara in northern Israel with rocket fire early Thursday morning, the Associated Press reported.

“This response will continue until the Israeli-American aggression against our country and our people ceases,” Hezbollah said, per the AP.

On Wednesday, hundreds were killed and injured in Israeli strikes on Lebanon, according to Lebanon’s Civil Defence.

While the alliance contends with a possible future without the US, Nato’s secretary general Mark Rutte — who has spent a year fawning over Trump in an apparent attempt to diplomatically stroke the president’s ego — is tasked with keeping the president close.

Rutte, who referred to Trump as “daddy” and sent him a swooning text message that the president posted on Truth Social, mounted a charm offensive last year to maintain a frail alliance that Trump has hollowed out with calls to war and insults directed to European allies who dared criticize his actions.

Rutte is now caught between a president who threatens to abandon the alliance and Nato members who have clashed with his own public statements supporting the US-Israeli campaign and public appeals for Americans to get behind their president.