1.3 Fossil energy infrastructure incidents
Iran and the Gulf control a substantial share of global oil and gas production, and facilities producing, refining, storing and exporting these fossil fuels have been the focus of attacks. These carry significant environmental risks through spills, fires and disrupted operations.
Israeli attacks on four oil facilities in and around Tehran on the weekend of the 7-8th March captured global attention on the environmental implications of the war after the city’s nine million residents were exposed to dangerous pollution levels, including “black rain” as soot and pollutants rained out of the smoke clouds. The attacks were part of a decision by Israel to attack around 30 oil processing and storage facilities across Iran. The attacks helped spook global oil markets and were criticised by the Trump administration. Our detailed assessment of the health and environmental costs of the Tehran strikes can be found here.
Other serious incidents occurred at Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanurah refinery on the 2nd of March, and the UAE’s Fujairah Port on the 3rd. Both incidents were reportedly caused by Iranian drones, as a result of reported direct strikes and intercepted strikes respectively, and generated large smoke plumes. Such plumes can contain particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, sulphur dioxide, carbon monoxide and toxic organic compounds — including PAHs and potentially dioxins — posing health risks to downwind communities. Blackouts following attacks on energy infrastructure, such as in Ras Laffan Industrial City in Qatar, can cause significant secondary harm, with power loss disrupting safety systems and triggering industrial pollution.
Risks to shipping associated with the conflict increased the cost of vessel insurance, effectively creating a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz which has been reinforced by Iranian military threats and sporadic attacks on shipping. By the 9th of March only ships with Iranian connections were reported to be passing. At the outset of the war roughly 150 crude and LNG tankers were anchored in the Gulf, meaning the oil, gas and global urea trade will face severe disruptions. While Saudi Arabia is redirecting some exports via the Red Sea, many Gulf countries are reducing production.
Qatar has shut down Liquefied natural gas (LNG) production, which may take months to restore to full capacity, and has warned that they may be forced to halt energy exports entirely, with energy production in Iraq, Israel and now Kuwait also impacted. This has contributed to an energy price shock that — if prolonged — will have complex downstream effects for both the region and the international community. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, higher energy prices led to a shift to more polluting fuels in the short-term in Europe but has contributed towards policies supporting the energy transition in the medium term. For countries like Iraq whose economies are highly dependent on fossil fuel rents, sudden drops in revenue can be politically destabilising. The Trump administration’s move to calm energy markets on the 9th March led to initial reductions in oil prices. The overall picture for global greenhouse emissions will take time to become clear as it takes a substantial rise in oil prices to dampen demand.
