An environmental quango, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), has set out a series of recommendations to the Welsh Government as part of its advice on the Fourth Carbon Budget for the period 2031 to 2035.
The proposals outline how Wales could continue reducing emissions across key sectors while progressing towards net zero.
The CCC estimates that the net cost of achieving net zero in Wales will be around 0.4 per cent of GDP per year on average. While it argues that much of the required investment, particularly in electricity supply, electric vehicles and heat pumps.
At the centre of the recommendations is a target to reduce emissions by an average of 73 per cent below 1990 levels over the 2031-2035 period. The Committee advises that this should be delivered through domestic action rather than international carbon credits, and calls for stronger alignment between short-term policies and long-term decarbonisation goals.
The CCC also recommends a more coordinated, economy-wide approach. This includes working with the UK Government to improve public engagement, publishing a Net Zero skills action plan to address workforce gaps and developing targeted transition plans for communities and industries likely to be affected.
In industry, the focus is on supporting carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen projects, particularly in major clusters such as South Wales. In agriculture, the CCC proposes incentivising land-use changes such as woodland creation, peatland restoration and renewable energy, alongside providing long-term funding certainty for low-emission farming practices.
In transport, the Committee calls for expanded electric vehicle charging infrastructure and improved public information to support uptake. However, this comes with notable costs. Analysis by the TaxPayers’ Alliance estimates that bringing Wales up to the current British average for charger coverage could cost around £23 million, equivalent to the average Band D council tax paid by 9,920 households in 2026-27. Meeting the Welsh Government’s full 2030 target could cost around £133 million, more than a fifth of the Welsh transport capital budget for that year.
In the buildings sector, the CCC recommends that from 2026 all new homes should use low-carbon heating systems, with wider regulations ensuring that all new and replacement systems are low carbon beyond 2035. It also calls for improvements in energy efficiency, particularly in social housing, and a long-term programme to decarbonise public sector buildings.
In waste, the focus is on maintaining high recycling rates while going further on waste reduction, alongside a recommendation to prevent expansion of energy-from-waste capacity unless it can be linked to carbon capture and storage. More broadly, data from the TaxPayers’ Alliance shows that Wales already has a higher level of household waste separation than the rest of the UK, with an average of six bins per council compared to four in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Taken together, these proposals represent a significant expansion of policy intervention across the Welsh economy. Welsh taxpayers are likely to be concerned about both the cost of delivering net zero and the growing influence of an unelected body in shaping policy. With pressures on public finances and frontline services already acute, the next Welsh government will need to prioritise delivering core services while ensuring that the transition does not place an excessive burden on households and businesses.
