Figures distorted by the stamp duty change impact on the market last year
The market has responded cautiously to ONS’ reports of a 3.8% rise in house prices to £270,000 for the 12 months to April. The figure was up from 0.0% in the 12 months to March 2026.
Nicky Stevenson, managing director at Fine & Country, said: “A rise of 3.8% in annual house price growth makes a strong headline, but it needs some context. This jump has been partly driven by a base effect, after prices fell sharply in April last year following Stamp Duty changes in England and Northern Ireland.
“The market is not suddenly racing ahead, but it is seeing healthy growth that is sustainable for buyers and sellers alike. Average house prices did rise between March and April, but by a more modest 0.7%, which points to a market that is improving steadily rather than overheating.
Champagne back on ice
Jonathan Hopper, CEO of Garrington Property Finders, agreed that the market shouldn’t get overexcited by the latest figures. “Homeowners breaking out the champagne in response to the apparently dizzying jump in house price growth should put it back on ice.
“If it sounds too good to be true that the annual rate of price growth jumped from zero to 3.8% in the space of a month, that’s because it is. Sadly, much of the jump is a distortion caused by an increase in Stamp Duty rates last April, but nevertheless there are some encouraging signs in this April’s data.”
He cited the fact that only London and South East England saw average prices fall in April, when in March seven out of nine English regions plus Scotland recorded a drop in prices.
He said: “It’s too early to talk of the property market bouncing back, and there’s always a big lag on the Land Registry data. It takes a long time to reflect events, and this April data records the prices paid in transactions that may well have been agreed before the Iran war began. Since then the imbalance between supply and demand has grown further.” Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, described a ‘market that feels flat’. “As the inflationary impact of the Middle East conflict lingers beyond any ceasefire and the Bank of England holds rates steady for the foreseeable future, we expect the mood to remain subdued,” he said.
