The latest house price index shows a stable start to 2026 for the housing market – but it’s using data from before the Iran War added to uncertainty.
The latest e.surv House Price Index shows that while price growth remains modest overall, stronger year-on-year performance in Scotland (4.3%), the North West and Wales (both 3.4%) and Yorkshire (3.0%), continues to support the national picture.
There’s a more subdued picture in London (down 2.5%) and the South.
Despite this divide, activity in the market has strengthened since the end of 2025, with mortgage valuation volumes running ahead of expectations during the first two months of the year.
There are healthy engagement levels from both first‑time buyers and movers.
Historically, this level of valuation activity feeds through into completed sales within two to three months, suggesting the pipeline into the spring market is building.
However, the outlook for borrowing costs has become less certain in recent weeks amid rising global economic volatility.
Rob Owens, Head of Research at e.surv, says: “Price trends remain steady rather than strong, and the pattern varies by region, but overall, the market entered the year on a firm footing.
“However, the lending outlook has become more uncertain than many expected at the start of the year.
“Rising geopolitical tensions have pushed up gilt yields and increased swap rate volatility, creating a more unpredictable lending environment than was anticipated.
“Reports suggest that some lenders have already begun adjusting mortgage pricing and withdrawing products in response.
“While rates remain well below the peaks seen in late 2023, lenders are clearly acting cautiously until funding markets stabilise.”
For now, affordability in Scotland, Wales and much of northern England continues to support stronger regional growth.
e.surv says rthe key question for the months ahead is whether buyer demand can remain resilient enough to offset softness in London and the South, should borrowing conditions tighten again.
