Oil prices surged by Friday afternoon despite Donald Trump lifting sanctions on Russian oil in a bid to stabilise global energy markets and reports that an Indian tanker has sailed out of the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude (BZ=F) futures rose nearly 1% to $101.41 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) climbed 0.8% to $96.51 at the time of writing.
The US Treasury Department issued exemptions on Thursday night allowing Russian oil stranded at sea to be shipped globally until 11 April. Officials expect the move to add hundreds of millions of barrels to the market, which they had hoped would push prices back below $100.
The price drop came after an Indian government official confirmed that the India-flagged oil tanker Jag Prakesh had cleared the eastern entrance of the Strait, carrying gasoline destined for Africa.
Neil Wilson, investor strategist at Saxo UK, commented: “Crude oil prices dipped by around -2% after India stated it has an oil tanker moving out of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent slipped below $99 per barrel,” Wilson said.
“Too early to comment or speculate on what this means, but markets are still very much trading the headlines and keen to latch on to any shred of good news. Expect this to be faded.”
Emril Jamil, senior analyst at LSEG, said: “ICE brent futures have already breached $100 per barrel and are still supported today, despite moves to calm the markets with the Russian oil waiver and the unprecedented release of emergency stockpiles.
“The market sees this as a short-term solution that does not address the crux of the supply disruption. The crude intermonth spreads for future months indicate an unresolved and continued tightness in supply.”
Read more: FTSE 100 LIVE: London stocks and oil begin rebound as US eases sanctions on Russian oil
Analysts at Goldman Sachs (GS) have raised their forecast for brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $71 a barrel from $66. US crude is now expected to average $67 in the final quarter, up from a previous estimate of $62.
Brent is forecast to average $98 a barrel in March and April. However, the bank said prices could climb as high as $110 in an upside risk scenario in which flows through the strait are disrupted for a month.
Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, said: “Multiple interventions, including the unprecedented release of 400 million barrels of emergency supplies coordinated by the International Energy Agency, have not been able to counter mounting concern about severe disruption to global oil output and distribution.
