Ilan Goldenberg, director of the Middle East Security Program at the Center for a New American Security and a former senior Middle East advisor at the White House’s National Security Council in 2024, said he was “thankful” for the ceasefire and that it was “the right move.”
But he said that, if it holds, the war would still end as a “strategic disaster.”
Goldenberg shared a “scorecard” of the conflict in an X post on Wednesday, saying Iran retains key advantages, including highly enriched uranium, intact proxy networks in the region, and a missile and drone arsenal that has proven resilient under US and Israeli pressure.
He added that the war has already caused “major damage” to the global economy, strained US alliances in the Gulf and Europe, and could leave Israel more isolated.
“Region: as unstable as ever,” Goldenberg wrote, adding the conflict may ultimately require a greater US commitment and leave Washington less prepared for other global challenges.
