As the 2026 NFL regular season pushes past the one-third mark, the race for the league’s Most Valuable Player award is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent memory. ESPN polled 16 league executives, coaches, and personnel experts to gauge the early front-runners, resulting in a top-five list that highlights both the dominance of signal-callers and the standout performances of elite skill players.
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy leads the field, bolstered by an undefeated 6-0 start and a league-best 83.1 QBR. Despite navigating an injury-riddled roster that has seen 22 players placed on injured reserve, Purdy has maintained remarkable accuracy, completing 88% of his passes to open receivers. As one AFC assistant general manager noted, “He just finds a way to win. His numbers might not be as gaudy as others, but he’s very valuable.”
Close behind is Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who remains the league’s most dangerous dual-threat. With an NFL-high 17 total touchdowns, Allen continues to carry a Buffalo team that has struggled defensively. His legendary performance in a 37-34 overtime win against the Rams—where he accounted for 121 rushing yards, 91 of which came in the fourth quarter and overtime—remains the defining MVP moment of the season thus far.
The list also features two high-impact running backs, signaling a potential shift in how voters view non-quarterback candidates. Kansas City’s Kenneth Walker III has been the engine of the 5-0 Chiefs, leading the NFL with 52 broken tackles and providing critical relief for Patrick Mahomes. Meanwhile, Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson is putting together a historic statistical campaign, on pace for over 2,200 all-purpose yards. While team record currently hinders Robinson’s candidacy, his ability to produce under pressure has made him the clear focal point of the Falcons’ offense.
Rounding out the top five is Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is currently on an unprecedented pace to potentially eclipse 2,000 receiving yards. Smith-Njigba has been a nightmare for defensive coordinators, leading the league in catches and touchdowns. While a wide receiver has never won the AP MVP award, his dominance in the face of constant press coverage has made him impossible to ignore.
While these five currently headline the conversation, several other superstars loom in the background. Quarterbacks Trevor Lawrence and Bryce Young are orchestrating impressive campaigns for their respective clubs, and former MVPs like Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson remain within striking distance. As the schedule tightens and the November trade deadline approaches, the race remains wide open, promising a compelling second half of the season.
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