India and Pakistan still cannot agree to restore the Indus Waters Treaty – but re-engagement could help bring lasting peace
EXPERT COMMENT
Water cooperation is not only mutually beneficial for India and Pakistan, but essential. Restoring the Indus Waters Treaty could be a powerful foundation for rebuilding trust.
Water has long been entangled with the political and security dynamics between India and Pakistan. The Indus River Basin is a lifeline for more than 300 million people across both countries, supporting agriculture, energy production and livelihoods. Signed in 1960, the Indus Waters Treaty divided the basin’s rivers between India and Pakistan while establishing detailed rules for cooperation, data sharing and dispute resolution. For more than six decades, it proved remarkably durable and acted as a stabilizing force for broader India-Pakistan relations. It has survived three wars and prolonged periods of diplomatic freeze, offering a rare pathway for cooperation.
But in recent years, the treaty had come under increasing strain. Following a militant attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, in April 2025 – for which India blamed Pakistan but Islamabad denied involvement – India chose to temporarily suspend its participation in the treaty and subsequently restricted the flow of water for short periods through the Baglihar and Kishanganga dams. Water scarcity during summer could increase the likelihood of India reducing downstream river flows into Pakistan, critical for irrigation, drinking supplies and hydropower generation. Should India’s reservoir storage capacities improve amid surging water scarcity, there are risks of an escalating crisis.
India’s decision to suspend the treaty not only significantly erodes the predictability and stability it had provided but also underscores how water can exacerbate tensions and even be instrumentalized as a tool of conflict – especially in the context of geopolitical rivalry.
Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.
