One Nation won its first ever lower house victory on Saturday night, with Pauline Hanson’s insurgent party easily winning the Farrer byelection amid a collapse in the Coalition vote.
Irrigator David Farley soundly beat independent Michelle Milthorpe in the closely watched race, translating for the first time One Nation’s dramatic rise in public support to a clear result in parliament. The loss of the previously Liberal seat will further weaken Angus Taylor’s depleted party.
Farley won resoundingly, with the Liberal vote tanking and Milthorpe’s vote down from 2025.
Picking up the regional New South Wales electorate held by former opposition leader Sussan Ley for a generation is the first time voters have handed One Nation a lower house seat in an election or byelection.
Hanson, elected to parliament as an independent in 1996, founded the populist party in 1997, while Nationals defector Barnaby Joyce joined One Nation last year while already an MP.
Before 8pm, election analyst Antony Green said Milthorpe was gaining primary votes in Albury, but going backwards after preferences. He said Farley would win with more than 40% of the primary vote, ahead of Milthorpe on about 28%.
The two Coalition parties struggled to reach a combined primary vote of 20%.
Claiming victory, Farley said the result represented a milestone for the populist party. He said lowering the cost of living was a priority, along with ending net zero by 2050 and fixing water policy.
“We’re like a mason with a chisel and a hammer, and we’re re-carving the letters into the Australian democracy. One Nation has reached the end of its beginning.
“We’re going through the ceiling.”
The Liberal candidate, Raissa Butkowski, and the Nationals’ Brad Robertson were never considered strong chances to win, despite the Coalition parties holding Farrer for its entire 76-year history. Labor opted not to contest the race.
One Nation’s victory comes after months of the party’s support growing beyond 20% in opinion polls.
Hanson said millions of Australians would take hope from the result.
“We’re coming after those other seats,” she told a jubilant crowd.
“You are not going to be the forgotten people any more. We are proud Australians. We want our country back and that’s what One Nation is about.”
The win prompted Nationals frontbencher Bridget McKenzie to suggest the Coalition could work with One Nation to form government in the future.
“I’d be willing to work with anyone that wants to see Anthony Albanese leave The Lodge, that wants to see sensible water policy for the Southern Connected Basin, and that actually wants to see regional Australia get their fair share,” McKenzie told the ABC.
Independent MP Helen Haines, who holds the neighbouring seat of Indi, blamed a preference deal by Taylor and the Nationals’ leader, Matt Canavan, for the expected result. The Coalition backed Farley over Milthorpe, who had financial backing from Simon Holmes à Court’s Climate 200 organisation.
“The Liberal party and the National party have smoothed the runway for One Nation, by preferencing One Nation,” Haines said.
Luke Mansillo, a political scientist at the University of Sydney, said the result would redefine the political landscape.
“The Australian party system is being redefined from the stable political conflict between class interests and urban and rural interests that has held for the most part since 1910,” Dr Mansillo said.
“After decades of seeing the future disappear through things like agricultural price guarantees disappearing and younger generations leaving the regions, those who cannot see a future have gone to extremes in a scream of desperation.”
But Farley’s road to becoming One Nation’s newest MP has been rocky in recent weeks amid revelations the Narrandera-based agribusiness consultant was once a Nationals branch member and even considered standing for Labor.
Guardian Australia revealed on Friday the extent of his earlier cooperation with the independent movement, as minders sought to shield Hanson and Farley from media questions.
One Nation has blocked media outlets including the Guardian from attending its election night event. Hanson has regularly bristled at critical coverage of One Nation.
