Europe stands at a critical moment in its energy transition.
As the European Commission published yesterday its “Accelerate EU” communication, the urgency of strengthening domestic energy production has never been clearer. Biomethane, a renewable and locally produced gas, offers a direct pathway to reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports and increase resilience against external shocks.
Yet, despite growing geopolitical momentum and clear strategic value, biomethane deployment is not scaling at the pace required.
According to the European Commission, Europe’s exposure to global energy markets continues to come at a high cost. In 2025 alone, the European Union spent €336.7 billion on energy imports, with an additional €22 billion linked to recent geopolitical tensions. These figures highlight the economic and strategic urgency of accelerating domestic renewable energy solutions.
A new report assessing Europe’s realistic and sustainable biomethane potential confirms that the resource base is not the limiting factor. On the contrary, biomethane can play a central role in building a defossilised and more resilient European energy system.
However, the findings also point to a growing gap between ambition and implementation.
The estimated biomethane potential for 2030 (EU-27 + UK, NO, CH) has been revised to 34–35 billion cubic metres (bcm). While this remains substantial, it is lower than in previous assessments. Crucially, this reduction does not reflect a decline in technical potential, but rather a lack of timely action to deploy projects and mobilise available feedstocks.
Production today remains below what is achievable with existing resources. Europe currently produces around 22 bcm of biogases, of which only 5 bcm is upgraded to biomethane. This output is based almost entirely on mature anaerobic digestion technologies and relies on feedstocks that are already widely available.
The issue, therefore, is not whether Europe can produce more biomethane, but whether it can create the conditions to do so.
Feedstock availability remains strong. The report shows that 81% of the 2030 potential could be sourced from agricultural residues, animal manure, sequential crops and industrial wastewater. These are established and sustainable resources that exist across Europe today.
At the same time, the geographic distribution of this potential is concentrated, with around 60% located in Germany, France, Italy, Poland and the United Kingdom. This highlights both the scale of the opportunity and the need for coordinated national strategies.
Looking further ahead, the long-term outlook is even more compelling. Biomethane production potential is projected to reach between 116 and 132 bcm by 2040, and up to 205 bcm by 2050. This trajectory reinforces biomethane’s role as a key pillar of a future defossilised energy system.
Despite this, scaling remains constrained.
As highlighted in the report, the main bottleneck is no longer technical capability, but the ability to mobilise sustainable biomass feedstocks at scale. This includes ensuring sufficient volumes of eligible materials can be supplied to biogas projects at predictable costs, while meeting sustainability requirements, securing public acceptance and overcoming local logistical challenges.
These are not insurmountable barriers, but they require clear and consistent policy responses.
Europe has the resources to scale up biomethane, but deployment is being held back by persistent regulatory and barriers. Without a stable and coherent policy framework, including clear long-term signals for investors, the sector cannot scale at the pace required to deliver on Europe’s energy and climate objectives.
As Harmen Dekker, CEO of the European Biogas Association, notes:
“With vague political acknowledgement and fragmented regulation, the biomethane sector cannot scale up at the pace required. It is encouraging that the Commission is starting to recognise the strategic relevance of biomethane, but this is not yet translating into tangible and urgent measures. This is a missed opportunity, especially as electrification alone will not do the trick for Europe’s energy transition.”
The stakes are high. Biomethane is one of the few renewable energy sources that can be produced domestically, integrated into existing gas infrastructure and deployed at scale using proven technologies. It offers immediate benefits in terms of emissions reduction and energy security.
With the right conditions in place, Europe holds a significant and sustainable resource that can deliver a domestic source of renewable energy, strengthen resilience to external shocks, and contribute meaningfully to Europe’s long-term energy independence.
