Phil Klotzbach, senior research scientist at Colorado State University, described current conditions as pointing toward “a moderate to strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season.” That suppresses Atlantic activity through increased wind shear – current forecasts project a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, welcome news for London syndicates with US wind exposure. But Inigo Insurance’s catastrophe research team, writing last week, cautioned against complacency. The event is “emerging against a backdrop of global warming, which, when combined, will likely make 2026 and/or 2027 the warmest years on record and amplify global hydroclimate extremes.” The intensity ceiling for any storms that do form remains elevated regardless of basin-wide statistics.
