What is going to happen to the electricity grid? What would be the cost for consumers? The grid will be under stress as electricity demand will rise in the morning and after sunset, and peak-hour prices will bite just when families and industries need warmth most.
In this single-option pathway, other renewable heating options still exist, but they have been sidelined or not scaled to their full potential. With the European Commission expected to release its Heating and Cooling Strategy and Electrification Action Plan, this is not an abstract exercise. It is one possible direction of travel, and it raises a basic question: what will happen during winter peaks when millions of citizens heat with electricity at the same time?
A recent study from TU Wien and BEST suggests that a resilient heating system, which can withstand energy crises, works best when different technologies complement each other. The authors explicitly describe biomass as an optimal complement to electrification and highlight the “synergetic benefits” between solutions that rely on electricity (e.g., heat pumps) and biomass heating.
Biomass can strengthen system reliability while electrification expands
Electrifying heating not only changes how much electricity we use, but also when we need it. By assessing the electrification of heating of single and double-family homes in four EU countries, the study evaluated the additional peak electricity demand. In a higher-uptake scenario, the study shows that additional peak electricity capacity associated with heat pumps could reach +12.7 GW in Germany and +5.8 GW in France in 2040. Put differently, meeting that extra peak would require roughly the same capacity as provided by eight very large nuclear reactors in Germany, and four in France.
“Additional peak electricity demand” is not about the average electricity use. Think of it less like an annual electricity bill, more like rush hour traffic. The grid doesn’t just need to deliver enough electricity across the year, but it also needs to be built to cope with the busiest moments, when millions of people are simultaneously heating their houses, charging their cars and running all the home appliances.
The study shows that even though heat pumps today account for less than 10% of the total EU electricity consumption, their impact on peak demand is already measurable. Because heat pumps all tend to run at the same time, on the same cold days, their collective impact on the grid is disproportionate to their overall share of annual electricity use. As the installed base grows, so will the peak demand, and the grid needs to be carefully designed to meet such peaks, or stress periods will follow.
This is not a critique of heat pumps, which are essential for the energy transition. It is a reminder that a successful transition needs more than one tool, because not every building, region, or winter peak can be served the same way. Fossil fuels still dominate Europe’s heating systems. Europe needs all hands-on deck to transition to clean heating.
The synergy of efficient electricity and renewable heat that does not add to the peak
The study also maps how biomass heating interacts with the power system. Heat pumps bring highly efficient renewable heat, particularly in suitable buildings and conditions. Biomass boilers and stoves, meanwhile, can deliver renewable heat without drawing meaningful electricity at the same moment, which can ease pressure on the power system during peak times.
Hybrid systems can combine solutions in ways that are operationally practical. The transition to clean heating will rely on our capacity to redesign the energy system, and systems are strengthened by diversity.
In a sensitivity test for Germany, the authors doubled the installed biomass boilers from 1.1 million to 2.2 million. As a result, the peak electricity demand was lowered by 1.25 GW, roughly 11%. These findings have clear policy implications: any framework that excludes diversified dispatchable renewable heat risk if future policies exclude dispatchable renewable heat options risk transferring avoidable system costs on final users.
An electrification that acknowledges Europe’s housing reality and respect citizens’ choices
The heating transition requires policy goals to be grounded in market realities. Energy renovation rates in the analysed countries are way below the 3% target needed to align the building stock with the 2050 climate objectives. The building’s energy performance, the local climate, and electricity prices are among the major factors influencing consumers’ decisions to upgrade their heating systems.
That is why citizens must be left with a real choice among renewable heating options, within clear sustainability and air-quality rules. A one-size-fits-all approach risks slowing uptake precisely in those households where defossilisation is hardest. Consumers could revert to fossil solutions, as they are the simplest to install, if they find themselves with too few alternatives.
Building more resilient local communities
Locally anchored choices tend to be more resilient to energy shocks and more easily welcomed by citizens when they can see the supply chain, the jobs, and the reliability. Because it is both locally available and storable, biomass for heating is an indispensable piece of the future energy puzzle.
Local factors are key. Access to resources, the age and characteristics of the building stock, the economy, the presence of industry, and whether an area is urban or rural, with plenty of forests around. We need the integration of all renewables. Electrification works best when complemented by renewable heat options like biomass, which can help manage peak demand and strengthen system reliability.
For example, in Łódź (Poland), a biomass CHP plant is being upgraded with flue-gas heat recovery and high-efficiency heat pumps, creating a hybrid system that raises the value of heat already present in the plant. The project will increase renewable heat production without increasing biomass consumption, showing how heat pumps and solid biomass can work together rather than compete. In Sønder Felding (Denmark), district heating combines an existing biomass boiler with a heat pump and thermal storage, allowing the operator to run on renewable electricity when it is cheapest and store heat for later, easing pressure on the grid.
The choice is not electrons or renewable molecules; it is a heating system that works
Europe can defossilise heating faster if it designs the transition as a portfolio of solutions rather than a contest for a single winner. The study’s message is practical: when policy and planning lean too heavily on one pathway, the difficulties do not disappear, they show up elsewhere, in grid constraints, sharper peak prices, and friction with citizens.
In 2040, no one will care whether the transition matched a slogan. People will care whether their home is warm, their business is running, their bills are bearable, and the energy system holds during the coldest week of the year. That’s exactly what matters most to citizens, and bioenergy is already delivering. It provides reliable, affordable solutions today and will continue to be there when it counts.
Jérémie Geelen is Market Intelligence Director at Bioenergy Europe
Jérémie Geelen. Image provided by Bioenergy Europe
