Goldman Sachs Commodity Specialist James McGeoch is quoted in the report: “[It is] Hard to think of a bigger metal supply shock.”
Could we see similar such examples, even if the immediate conflict is resolved?
The lesson extends well beyond soft drinks. Over the past decade, companies have streamlined operations to improve efficiency, often reducing complexity in packaging, sourcing and production.
While this approach lowers costs and simplifies logistics, it can also remove critical layers of resilience. When a supply chain depends heavily on one material, one route or one format, it becomes more vulnerable to external shocks.
Lessons of the aluminium shortage
The aluminium shortage highlights how these risks can materialise. A disruption in one region, the Middle East, has quickly cascaded through global networks, affecting not only beverages but also other sectors reliant on canned packaging, including food and personal care products.
As companies compete for limited supply, costs rise and lead times extend, creating further pressure across value chains.
The situation raises important questions for supply chain professionals. Should businesses prioritise flexibility over efficiency when designing packaging strategies?
Is it time to revisit dual sourcing or invest in alternative formats that can be activated during disruption? And how can organisations better anticipate the indirect effects of geopolitical events on materials that are not typically seen as strategic?
There are no simple answers, but the direction of travel has been clear for some time. Alarm bells regarding aluminium supply in the US rang long before war in the Middle East.
