Southwest Monsoon Set to Retreat from Northwest India by September 19, IMD Predicts
Bengaluru | Sep 14, 2026
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Monday that the Southwest Monsoon is expected to initiate its withdrawal from parts of Northwest India around September 19. This transition marks the beginning of the end for the four-month rainy season, which has been characterized by significant spatial variability and widespread rainfall deficits this year.
While the normal date for the monsoon’s departure from this region is September 17, the current forecast suggests a slight delay of approximately two days. Meteorologists note that atmospheric conditions are gradually turning favorable for the retreat, starting with the western reaches of Rajasthan.
Weather Activity Prior to Withdrawal
Despite the approaching withdrawal, the IMD has cautioned that the region is not yet free from monsoon-related weather disturbances. Before the moisture-laden winds finally recede, several areas are expected to experience intense spells of thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds.
This localized volatility is primarily attributed to a low-pressure system currently hovering over northern Gujarat. While the monsoon begins its exit, the influence of this system is expected to keep neighboring areas of Rajasthan under a rain-affected spell for the next 48 to 72 hours. Furthermore, widespread precipitation is anticipated across a broad swathe of Northern India, including Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, and the national capital, Delhi, through September 18. Eastern Rajasthan is similarly expected to see continued monsoon activity until September 20.
A Season of Rainfall Deficits
The 2026 monsoon season has been a challenging one for the agricultural and water-management sectors. Data provided by the IMD highlights a concerning trend of below-average rainfall across the country. Following a sluggish start in June with a 35.4 per cent deficit, the season saw a brief recovery in July with a 1 per cent surplus. However, August failed to maintain that momentum, recording a 13.8 per cent deficit, while September has thus far seen a 15 per cent shortfall.
With only a fortnight left in the official monsoon calendar, approximately 43 per cent of the country’s meteorological subdivisions remain in the deficit category.
Regional Impacts and Outlook
The regional disparity in rainfall has been stark. The Southern Peninsular region is projected to conclude the season with significantly below-average rainfall, signaling potential challenges for reservoir levels in the coming months. Other states facing substantial deficits include Punjab (-40 per cent), Bihar (-35 per cent), Rajasthan (-25 per cent), and Haryana (-23 per cent).
The Northeast has also been hit particularly hard; Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur are both grappling with a 42 per cent rainfall shortage, while Meghalaya has recorded a staggering 59 per cent deficit compared to its long-period average. In contrast, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands remain a notable exception, with seasonal rainfall figures tracking close to the normal range.
Strengthening El Niño conditions have been cited as a primary driver for the erratic distribution of rainfall this season. As the country transitions into the post-monsoon period, the focus will now shift to assessing the long-term impact of these deficits on the upcoming Rabi crop season and overall water security.
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