A surge in residential construction across England has brought with it a troubling environmental legacy: thousands of families are being moved into homes situated in high-risk flood zones. New analysis released today by insurer Aviva reveals that one in nine (11%) new homes built between 2022 and 2024—totaling nearly 44,000 properties—are located in areas categorized as having a medium or high risk of flooding.
The findings indicate an accelerating trend that defies previous safety projections. When compared to the period between 2013 and 2022, where 8% of new homes were built in flood-prone zones, the recent data shows that the practice is becoming more frequent as the pace of house building increases. In total, over a quarter (26%) of all new homes constructed in the last three years—more than 100,000 properties—carry at least some level of flood risk.
The outlook for these homeowners is expected to worsen as climate change intensifies. According to the analysis, which cross-referenced Ordnance Survey address data with Environment Agency flood risk assessments, the proportion of homes at medium or high risk is projected to rise to 15%—or one in seven—by 2050 as extreme weather events become more frequent.
Perhaps most alarming is that these homeowners may find themselves without a safety net. Properties built after 2009 are excluded from the “Flood Re” reinsurance scheme, a government-backed initiative designed to ensure that flood insurance remains affordable and accessible for homes in high-risk areas. The exclusion was originally intended to discourage developers from building in vulnerable locations, yet the data suggests this policy has failed to curb the trend.
Jason Storah, a spokesperson for Aviva, acknowledged the urgent need for new housing to support national economic growth but warned that quantity cannot come at the expense of safety.
“It’s vital, therefore, that new homes are built in the right places and with resilience in mind,” Storah said. “It’s particularly worrying that this trend has risen in recent years, just as house building accelerates. Importantly, these homes are not protected by the Flood Re scheme… which was meant to prevent more new homes being put at risk. Sadly, as the study shows, this simply hasn’t happened.”
The report also highlights a growing disparity between new and existing housing stock. Projections suggest that by 2050, nearly one-third (30%) of homes built in the last three years will face some risk of flooding. This outpaces the projected risk for existing older properties, which stands at one in four. As the government continues its push to increase the national housing supply, the findings place renewed pressure on policymakers to tighten planning regulations and prioritize climate resilience in all future construction projects.
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