CONCORD, N.H. — The high-stakes battle for New Hampshire’s open U.S. Senate seat is officially set, as former Republican Sen. John Sununu and Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas coasted to primary victories on Tuesday night. The matchup, expected to be one of the most closely watched contests in the country, will serve as a bellwether for the fight for the Senate majority this November.
NBC News projected both candidates as the winners shortly after polls closed. Rep. Pappas fended off a challenge from scientist Karishma Manzur, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America. While Pappas held a commanding lead of 62% to 36% with approximately one-fifth of the vote counted, the result suggests a slightly tighter margin than some of his campaign’s internal polling had projected.
On the Republican side, John Sununu—a member of one of the state’s most prominent political dynasties—secured a decisive victory in a primary against former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown. With about one-sixth of the vote tallied, Sununu boasted 70% support compared to Brown’s 25%, buoyed by a key endorsement from Donald Trump.
The general election is poised to be an aggressive, high-spending affair. Even before the primary concluded, both campaigns had begun laying the groundwork for a scorched-earth general election. Pappas, who has served in the House since 2018, launched a scathing ad campaign in August targeting Sununu’s post-Senate career.
“In Congress, Sununu gave huge tax breaks to pharma companies and sided with the insurance industry, and then he went to work for them and made $35 million,” Pappas alleged in the advertisement. “In Washington, I’m taking on this kind of corruption.”
Republicans have responded in kind, with One Nation, the nonprofit arm of the GOP super PAC Senate Leadership Fund, already airing spots attacking Pappas. The ads highlight his support for a 2021 social safety net measure, claiming he facilitated tax breaks for wealthy out-of-state property owners.
The race for the seat, vacated by the retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, presents a unique challenge for both parties. Republicans are pinning their hopes on the Sununu family name and a potential opening with independent voters sensitive to tax policy. They are also looking to the coattails of GOP Gov. Kelly Ayotte, who is running for a second term.
However, Democrats remain defiant, pointing to the state’s history of favoring their party in recent presidential elections. Lauren French, a spokesperson for the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC, brushed off GOP confidence as “wish-casting.”
“We continue to put states that they didn’t even think were going to be competitive on the board,” French said, asserting that the party remains confident despite the looming pressures of the economy and the war in Iran.
As the candidates turn their full attention toward November, the seat formerly held by Shaheen stands as a critical checkpoint in the national scramble for power.
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