TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – Every year, ahead of the Oscars, movie geeks get to act like sports fans, discussing the Academy Award “race,” talking odds and percentages, and debating which films and which stars are frontrunners in the cinema Olympics.
The 98th Academy Awards, which will be held on Sunday, March 15, has all the makings of an epic Oscar showdown.
Two brilliant, original and tremendously successful movies—Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” and Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another”—are facing off for best picture.
And two of the most exciting and original Hollywood performers under 40—Michael B. Jordan, star of “Sinners,” and Timothée Chalamet, nominated for Josh Safdie’s “Marty Supreme”—are neck-and-neck in the best actor race.
There is plenty of potential for surprises and upsets in less prominent categories as well, particularly among the best supporting actor and actress contenders, making this year’s Oscars the rare awards ceremony where the winners do not seem pre-determined.
Oscar duel: ‘Sinners’ vs. ‘One Battle After Another’
“Sinners” goes into the Oscars with 16 nominations, the most for any film ever, beating out the previous record of 14 shared by “All About Eve” (1950), “Titanic” (1997) and “La La Land” (2016).
From his indie debut, with “Fruitvale Station” back in 2013, to his Marvel superhero epic “Black Panther” in 2018, director Coogler has never put a foot wrong. But with “Sinners,” he pulls off the nearly impossible, delivering a deeply personal blockbuster with an utterly original premise.
Set in 1932, the action-horror period movie stars Jordan in a dual role as identical twin brothers, Stack and Smoke, gangsters who return to their hometown in the Jim Crow South, only to be confronted by a supernatural evil, in the form of Irish-immigrant vampires.
The film is not only an artful exploration of America’s violent history of racism and cultural appropriation, it also works as a slick piece of Hollywood entertainment. “Sinners” has earned more than $370 million (€319 million) worldwide, making it the biggest blockbuster in the Oscar race.
The film could smash a bunch of Oscar records. Coogler could become the first Black filmmaker to win best director. His wife and producing partner, Zinzi Coogler, could become the first Black female producer to win best picture.
“Sinners” could also beat the all-time record for most Academy Award wins, 11, currently shared by “Ben-Hur” (1959), “Titanic” (1997) and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003).
But if the bookies are to be believed, “Sinners” is the odds-on Oscar favorite in only a handful of categories, including best original screenplay and the new category of best casting. In the race for the top prizes, best director and best picture, the front-runner is “One Battle After Another.”
‘One Battle After Another’: An insurgent awards favorite
Paul Thomas Anderson’s freewheeling comedy action adventure stars Leonardo DiCaprio as a one-time revolutionary firebrand turned burnt-out stoner forced to haul himself off the couch and get back in the fight when his biracial daughter Willa (Chase Infiniti) is kidnapped.
Freely adapted from Thomas Pynchon’s 1990 novel “Vineland,” “One Battle After Another” actually mirrors today’s polarized political landscape, lurching between the liberation of a migrant detention camp to scenes of a sanctuary city under siege from a federal government infiltrated by violent Christian nationalists determined to make America great again.
It’s all very serious and also completely absurd. The nationalists style themselves the “Christmas Adventurers”—greeting each other with a hearty “hail Saint Nick!”; Sean Penn, playing one of their faithful foot soldiers, is a cartoonish villain, perambulating about in his khakis and too-tight black tee as if he has a literal stick up his backside.
“One Battle After Another” has been the presumptive best picture champ since its debut last fall. Odds are high that the movie and Anderson — who has received 14 Oscar nominations in his career but has yet to take home a trophy — will be the big winners on Sunday night.
While “Sinners” remains a potent challenger, other best picture contenders—Chloe Zhao’s Shakespeare-era drama “Hamnet” and Josh Safdie’s period ping-pong dramedy “Marty Supreme”—already appear to be out of the race.
Best actor races: Frontrunner Jessie Buckley and the Chalamet ‘opera’ backlash
Jessie Buckley, who plays Agnes, the woodsy wife of William Shakespeare (Paul Mescal) in “Hamnet,” is, however, on track to win the best actress Oscar. The Irish actress is the clear frontrunner in a category traditionally known for upsets.
Timothée Chalamet, playing the titular Marty in “Marty Supreme”—a self-centered hustler who dreams of becoming a table tennis world champion—also looked on track for a best actor win, his first after two previous nominations. But an awkward comment during the awards campaign, when Chalamet casually dissed ballet and opera as art forms “no one cares about” anymore, sparked viral backlash online. Now the bookies have “Sinners” star Michael B. Jordan as the odds-on favorite to win best actor.
Other closely watched Oscar races this year include the best supporting categories, with Sean Penn’s “One Battle After Another” performance going head-to-head against veteran Swedish star Stellan Skarsgård, nominated for Joachim Trier’s Norwegian melodrama “Sentimental Value.”
For best supporting actress, there’s a potential three-way battle between Amy Madigan, nominated for a physically transformative role playing a witch in Zach Cregger’s horror hit “Weapons”; Teyana Taylor as a conflicted revolutionary in “One Battle After Another”; and Wunmi Mosaku, nominated for her turn as hoodoo healer Annie, the soulful core of “Sinners.”
In the best international feature category, “Sentimental Value”—the big winner at the European Film Awards—is the odds-on favorite among a strong group that includes Jafar Panahi’s Iranian drama “It Was Just an Accident” and Kleber Mendonca Filho’s Brazilian thriller “The Secret Agent.”
Hollywood studios vs. Netflix
In that other zig Oscar race, between the traditional Hollywood studios and streaming giant Netflix, the old guard looks strong this year.
Netflix is expected to scoop up some technical awards for Guillermo del Toro’s lavish “Frankenstein”—hair and make up, costume, production design.
Its surprise hit “KPop Demon Hunters” appears a lock for best animated feature, as well as best original song, for chart-topper “Golden.”
But, bare a major upset, Warner Bros., producer of both “One Battle” and “Sinners,” will be crowned this year’s Academy Award champion.
Even though that sounds like good news for Hollywood, there will be an air of melancholy hanging over the 98th Academy Awards.
Warners’ expected triumph comes against the backdrop of the studio’s looming takeover by Paramount Global, a mega-merger that will further consolidate the industry, all while anxiety grows over AI’s potential to completely disrupt, even destroy, the movie business.
In the sentence preceding his viral quote that ballet and opera have become art forms “no one cares about,” Chalamet touched on the pressure felt to defer Hollywood’s downfall, referring to talk show guests who urge everyone to go to the cinema: “Hey, we got to keep movie theaters alive. We got to keep this genre alive,” he said. As Hollywood fears its own demise, Chalamet’s swipe seems to cut a bit too close to home.
Read: Ranking Top 10 Oscar Best Actor Winners in the 21st Century
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