Europe’s second energy crisis in four years has lent fresh urgency to the continent’s long-running debate over how to decarbonise its economy, with the European Commission and major utilities converging on a common diagnosis: the energy transition is no longer primarily a climate argument but a security and competitiveness imperative.
That was the central message at a recent Euractiv event at which EDF, the French state-controlled electricity group, presented an updated version of its EU Net Zero 2050 scenario – a quantitative modelling exercise mapping a credible pathway to carbon neutrality that its authors say has become considerably more pressing since a previous edition published in 2024.
The backdrop was set by Antonio Lopez-Nicolas, chief economist at the European Commission’s energy directorate, DG ENER, who offered a blunt assessment of where Europe currently stands. “This is the second energy crisis in four years we are going through,” he said. “We are suffering from our dependence on imported fossil fuels. So, it’s not a question of decarbonisation any longer. It’s a question of security of supply and competitiveness.”
He noted that since the outbreak of war in Ukraine, the EU had spent an additional €23 billion on imported fossil fuels in just six weeks – equivalent to half a billion euros a day. “That’s half a billion a day that we could have used for completely different purposes,” he said, adding that the numbers in the EDF study were “not a million miles away from where we are trying to go.”
A changed landscape
Charles Weymuller, group chief economist at EDF, acknowledged that the geopolitical and macroeconomic context had shifted materially since the previous edition of the scenario.
“Since then, a lot has changed,” he said. “It is definitely not new to say that in the geopolitical context worldwide, in the macroeconomic context also worldwide, which makes for Europe the world riskier. External risks are on the rise, and especially for energy, energy issues are becoming more complex.”
He noted that the traditional energy trilemma – the tension between affordability, sustainability and security of supply – had grown more acute rather than less. “Those objectives are now even more complex,” he said.
The EDF scenario rests on four pillars: a 40 per cent reduction in final energy consumption through efficiency gains and behavioural change; accelerated electrification across transport, buildings and industry; efficient production of decarbonised power from a diversified mix; and a deliberate broadening of that mix to balance variable renewables with dispatchable sources, including nuclear and hydropower.
The net effect, EDF calculates, would be to reduce European fossil fuel imports by more than 80 per cent by mid-century – delivering not only an environmental outcome but a lasting reduction in total energy system costs and a significant diminution of geopolitical exposure.
Fabrice Noilhan, executive director of group strategy at EDF, pressed the case for immediate action. “I think that we are now at a stage where we need to change our energy system,” he said. “We can take decisions today in order to improve the situation in the future.”
His practical recommendation was to start with the lowest-hanging fruit. “Start with the most cost-effective CO2 abatement costs, and start now,” he said. “CO2 abatement costs are a very useful decision tool. They help us choose the actions that will deliver the biggest emissions reductions for the lowest cost. Some options are even cost negative – they reduce emissions while saving money.”
Political and analytical consensus
The scenario attracted broad endorsement from the event’s other participants, though with nuances that reflect the diversity of national positions within the EU.
Dr Andrea Wechsler, a member of the European Parliament’s industry, research and energy committee, welcomed the framework while flagging its harder edges. “One of the core cornerstones of the study is we need to go towards net zero in 2050,” she said.
“Electrification will be one of the backbones of the new energy system. But I also find it interesting that there will be sectors that are hard to abate, that will be hard to decarbonise. So, this integration perspective – to integrate a flexible storage systemic approach to the energy system – is very valuable.”
Simone Tagliapietra, senior fellow at the Brussels-based Bruegel think-tank and a specialist in EU energy and industrial policy, drew a pointed distinction between capital expenditure on clean infrastructure and ongoing spending on fossil fuel imports.
“If you look at a scenario where the gas price doubles the average level of last year, Europe will have to spend 100 billion more to import gas over the next 12 months,” he said. “Yes, the transition is costly, but from a pure economic perspective, investing in CAPEX is extremely different from burning cash in importing fossil fuels to the benefit of those few countries that produce them – with all the dependency that that creates.”
His conclusion aligned with EDF’s: “The direction for a fossil fuel-poor continent like Europe is crystal clear. Clean electrification is the only way forward – not only to meet our climate target, but really to boost our competitiveness and security.”
The German question
The event’s most diplomatically textured exchange came from Katharina Umpfenbach, director of electricity at DENA, the German Energy Agency, who noted broad convergence between EDF’s EU-wide modelling and her own organisation’s analysis while acknowledging one significant divergence.
“Electrification as the key strategy, renewables as a key strategy, and efficiency” were common ground across both models, she said. The difference lay in nuclear power – unavoidable given that Germany’s post-Fukushima phase-out remains policy, giving hydrogen a more prominent role in German energy planning than in the French scenario.
“I know whenever France and Germany talk about energy policy, the elephant in the room is nuclear,” she said. “For Germany, that is of course, a political decision.” She was nonetheless keen to emphasise what the two countries’ analyses shared. “The big pillars are very similar, and I think that’s encouraging,” she concluded.
The Commission, for its part, is attempting to channel this emerging consensus through its AccelerateEU strategy, which aims to address rising energy costs while accelerating the clean energy transition. Whether the political will exists across 27 member states to move at the pace EDF’s modelling demands remains the central unanswered question.
[BM]
