As global climate policy shifts from a focus on preventing the 1.5°C threshold to navigating its inevitable breach, the scientific community is sharpening its focus on the “overshoot, peak, and decline” trajectory. With many climate models now suggesting that exceeding 1.5°C of global warming is unavoidable, researchers are intensifying efforts to understand how humanity can limit the duration of this overshoot and safely return temperatures to safer levels.
A pivotal discussion on these strategies is taking place at COP31, where scientists behind the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report, Limiting Overshoot: Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return, are convening to provide an evidence-based roadmap for the coming decades. The session aims to translate abstract climate modelling into actionable policy, emphasizing that while the threshold may be crossed, the scale and duration of the excursion remain under human control.
The “overshoot, peak, and decline” framework centers on three critical pillars: the rapid intensification of emissions reductions, the strategic deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies, and the simultaneous strengthening of adaptation efforts. Experts stress that the longer temperatures remain above 1.5°C, the greater the risk of triggering irreversible climate tipping points. Therefore, the primary objective is to minimize the “area under the curve”—the total integrated temperature and duration above the target—to prevent long-term environmental damage.
A major component of this discourse involves the role of Carbon Dioxide Removal. While mitigation remains the highest priority, the scientific consensus suggests that large-scale CDR will likely be necessary to draw down atmospheric concentrations once emissions have been neutralized. However, the report urges caution, noting that CDR cannot be viewed as a panacea or a substitute for immediate, deep cuts to fossil fuel reliance.
The urgency of these efforts is underscored by findings from the newly released Overshoot and the Cryosphere: Averting Global Meltdown report. This study provides a sobering look at the consequences of temporary warming for the world’s frozen regions. Glaciers, ice sheets, and permafrost act as the planet’s cooling system; once they begin to degrade or collapse, the process is often self-reinforcing and potentially irreversible. The report highlights that even a short-term overshoot poses existential risks to these regions, which in turn would accelerate global sea-level rise and disrupt weather patterns for centuries to come.
“Every fraction of a degree matters, and every year of overshoot carries a heavy price,” noted a representative of the research team. The briefing at COP31 emphasizes that policy must treat mitigation and adaptation as inextricably linked. Adaptation is not merely a fallback for failure but a necessary bridge to protect vulnerable populations and ecosystems while the global economy undergoes the profound structural transformation required to bring temperatures back down.
The interactive session at Meeting Room 24 serves as a platform for delegates and policymakers to interrogate these findings directly. By bridging the gap between high-level climate modeling and on-the-ground reality, the scientists hope to steer global action away from the dangerous assumption that overshoot is a manageable state of equilibrium. Instead, the focus is on treating the overshoot period as a high-risk emergency phase that demands maximum, immediate effort to keep the window of recovery open.
As the climate community confronts the reality of a warming world, the consensus is clear: the goal has shifted from total prevention to damage limitation and rapid restoration. Whether the international community can successfully navigate this “overshoot” depends entirely on the speed at which it can transition to a net-negative emissions pathway. As the evidence makes plain, the difference between a controlled return and a permanent shift to a hotter, more unstable climate will be defined by the actions taken in the immediate term.
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