Mexico’s new economic trajectory has taken a definitive step forward with the introduction of “Plan México,” an ambitious industrial policy integrated into the nation’s latest National Development Plan. Unveiled in January 2025, the strategy seeks to revitalize the country’s manufacturing sector by setting aggressive targets: increasing investment to 28% of GDP by 2030, fostering domestic supply chains, and digitizing bureaucratic processes to slash investment lead times from years to months.
However, as the country attempts to modernize its industrial backbone, observers are weighing in on the necessary evolution required to move beyond traditional manufacturing metrics.
The Service Sector Blind Spot
While Plan México is a welcomed shift toward intentional development, critics point to a significant omission: the service sector. Despite the growing global reliance on digital services and professional consulting, the current framework remains anchored in the traditional measure of “tons of goods.”
By focusing almost exclusively on physical manufacturing, the plan risks ignoring the high-value potential of service exports. To compete in the modern AI-driven global economy, analysts suggest that Mexico must treat services with the same strategic importance as auto parts or electronics. This includes leveraging cloud-based platforms and generative AI to boost productivity, yet there is currently no specific budget or dedicated program to cultivate this burgeoning sector. Integrating services into the national industrial roadmap is no longer optional; it is essential for long-term economic resilience.
Comparative Analysis: The Brazil-Mexico Model
To understand the path forward, one must look at the “Brazil Mirror.” For decades, Brazil and Mexico have acted as the two divergent poles of Latin American economic policy. Brazil has historically embraced developmentalism, utilizing state-backed financing and protective, mission-driven policies to cultivate industrial giants like Embraer. In contrast, Mexico has pursued radical openness, effectively becoming the world’s factory for the United States but sacrificing domestic value retention in the process.
The contrast is stark: Brazil attracts higher levels of foreign direct investment due to its massive, protected internal market, while Mexico dominates in export volume, with over 90% of its exports consisting of manufactured goods. Yet, neither model has fully solved the riddle of sustained, equitable growth. The emerging consensus suggests that a hybrid approach—combining Brazil’s investment in strategic champions with Mexico’s export-oriented discipline—may provide the formula for success.
Implementing Structural Reform through Tech and Policy
For Plan México to transcend its current limitations, the government needs more than just vision; it requires an institutional arm. Currently, Mexico remains the only OECD nation without a dedicated promotion agency to oversee industrial strategy. Relying on “administrative heroism” is not a sustainable policy.
Instead, advocates are proposing a “minimum program” centered on modernization. This includes:
- Digital Infrastructure: Establishing a dedicated satellite account at INEGI to accurately measure service exports.
- Technological Integration: Utilizing AI-enabled administrative tools to facilitate the digital single window, further reducing bureaucratic friction for investors.
- Workforce Upskilling: Moving dual-education pilots to full-scale systems, focusing on technical English and digital literacy to keep pace with the needs of global tech firms.
- Public-Private Governance: Creating a permanent agency with non-partisan oversight to ensure that industrial goals persist beyond individual political administrations.
The global economy is moving toward a service-oriented, technology-driven future. Mexico currently possesses a deep industrial base and a unique geopolitical advantage. By shifting its focus from simple manufacturing to a sophisticated strategy that includes services, digital interoperability, and professional education, Mexico has the opportunity to stop “taxiing” on the runway and finally take off. The challenge now lies in ensuring that the policy framework evolves as quickly as the global market itself.
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