The African National Congress (ANC) is hurtling toward a potential electoral catastrophe in its traditional heartland of the Eastern Cape, warned political analyst and author Rebone Tau. As internal factionalism paralyzes the party’s administrative processes—most notably the current Electoral Commission (IEC) list crisis—observers argue that the ANC’s failure to address deep-seated political divisions could cost it control of the province by 2029.
While many have laid the blame for the current IEC list chaos at the feet of Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula, Tau contends that the focus on the SG is misplaced. “The biggest problem in the Eastern Cape is a political problem more than an administrative one,” Tau stated. The crisis stems from a fracturing of the very faction that has long dominated the provincial landscape, leading to a breakdown in governance and party cohesion.
The warning signs were laid bare on the weekend of August 22, when Eastern Cape mayoral nominees were conspicuously absent from a critical national ANC gathering in Sandton. Instead, these leaders were tied up in provincial list disputes—a development that signals a breakdown in the party’s internal management. According to Tau, this is not merely a procedural hiccup but a power struggle over who will inherit the premiership after Oscar Mabuyane concludes his final term, with an eye firmly fixed on the 2027 ANC National Conference and beyond.
The electoral math reflects a dwindling mandate. The ANC’s support in the Eastern Cape dropped from 68.74% in 2019 to 62.38% in 2024. Unlike previous cycles—such as the formation of the Congress of the People (COPE) in 2009, where the party remained resilient—the modern voter is increasingly pragmatic and willing to exercise other options. The United Democratic Movement (UDM), led by General Bantu Holomisa, is already moving to exploit this fertile ground, positioning itself as a primary beneficiary of the ANC’s decline.
Tau warns that if the ANC’s “Top 7” leadership and the National Working Committee fail to broker a lasting political solution, the party is likely to lose its outright majority in the province by 2029, forcing it into unstable coalitions.
“The ANC talks about renewal, but we don’t see it,” Tau noted, criticizing the party’s habit of purging members following internal conferences, which erodes the spirit of comradeship. She questioned the effectiveness of the current National Executive Committee, suggesting that despite being populated by former Youth League leaders, the body is allowing the party to “die a slow death.”
For the ANC to survive, the party must pivot from its inward-looking obsession with careerism and power. As the party prepares for its upcoming elective conference, the consensus remains grim: without a fundamental shift in political will and a rejection of toxic factionalism, the Eastern Cape—the cradle of the liberation movement—may soon slip out of the ANC’s grasp for good.
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