The history of passenger mobility is defined by a simple, often overlooked metric: speed. According to Arie Bleijenberg, President of the European transport federation Transport & Environment, the primary driver of increased mobility is not rising income or shifting preferences, but the constant pursuit of higher travel speeds. When people can travel faster, they inevitably travel further.
Empirical evidence suggests that individuals tend to dedicate a roughly constant amount of time to travel each day—on average, about 1.1 hours. Because this “travel time budget” is static, any increase in speed allows for longer distances to be covered within that same time window. This dynamic has shaped modern life since the post-World War II era, as the rise of the personal automobile enabled people to live, work, shop, and socialize at much greater distances from one another than was previously possible. Dutch data illustrates this shift starkly, showing that the average daily distance traveled by a person has tripled since 1960, from 10 to 30 kilometers, a growth almost entirely attributed to car use.
Despite the clarity of this trend, conventional transport policy often relies on misconceptions. Politicians and engineers frequently cite economic factors or behavioral changes as the reasons for mobility growth, while largely ignoring the fundamental role of speed. This omission leads to significant, systemic failures in planning.
One of the most persistent errors is the belief that building more roads in congested areas will solve traffic problems. History and empirical research, including the “Fundamental Law of Road Congestion,” prove otherwise. Expanding road capacity may provide temporary relief, but it invariably invites more traffic, as the increased speed makes driving more attractive, eventually returning congestion to its previous levels.
Furthermore, ignoring the relationship between speed and mobility leads to consistently over-optimistic traffic forecasts. In mature economies, the era of rapid growth in car use is coming to an end. In the Netherlands, average car speeds have stabilized since the turn of the century, and consequently, car mobility per person saw a 3% decline between 2005 and 2019. Similar trends have been observed in countries such as the UK, Belgium, Sweden, and Luxembourg. As other nations reach a similar saturation point in their motorway infrastructure, their growth patterns are likely to follow suit. By failing to recognize that the primary engine of growth—speed—has hit a ceiling, planners continue to produce forecasts that are systematically detached from reality.
Finally, the focus on speed blinds planners to the benefits of urban density. In large metropolitan areas, cars are often the slowest way to get around, operating at less than half the speed of rural averages. Consequently, urbanites naturally travel shorter distances and rely more heavily on public transport. Urbanization, therefore, emerges as the most efficient and sustainable way to provide accessibility. By integrating housing, workplaces, and services, cities can maintain high levels of connectivity while reducing the total distance—and thus the energy—required for daily movement.
The persistence of these misconceptions serves the vested interests of the road and automotive industries, which benefit from the cycle of congestion and constant expansion. However, if policymakers are to achieve truly sustainable and affordable mobility, they must shift their focus. Moving away from the obsession with higher speeds and toward smarter, denser urban planning is the only viable path forward. The evidence is clear: the era of unchecked mobility growth is ending, and the future of transport lies not in more asphalt, but in better-designed places.
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