The escalating proportion of Russian oil within India’s import portfolio suggests that any swift departure from Moscow as a supplier is highly improbable, even in the face of renewed tariff threats from the United States. This assessment comes from the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) in its latest report, highlighting the complex geopolitical and economic considerations influencing India’s energy strategy.
According to GTRI’s meticulous analysis, Russia’s contribution to India’s crude oil imports has now surpassed 50%. Specifically, in July, Russia is estimated to have furnished approximately 52% of India’s crude oil requirements, marking an increase from 48.6% in June. This significant rise underscores a critical juncture where more than half of India’s imported crude now originates from Russia, thereby severely limiting New Delhi’s immediate capacity to curtail these acquisitions. Ajay Srivastava, the founder of GTRI, emphasized this point, noting the profound implications for India’s energy policy.
Delving deeper into the business dynamics, GTRI’s analysis for June revealed that India’s total crude oil imports amounted to $14.8 billion, with a substantial $7.2 billion—or 48.6%—coming from Russia. While government data for July indicated overall imports from Russia reached $8.9 billion, the specific breakdown for crude oil was not provided. However, by extrapolating from June’s figures, where crude constituted 82% of India’s imports from Russia, GTRI estimated that Russian crude imports in July were around $7.3 billion.
India’s approach to sourcing crude oil has undergone a dramatic transformation in recent years. The nation’s reliance on Russian crude has surged considerably, climbing from about 15% in 2022 to an estimated 30.3% in the fiscal year 2025-26. This trend has intensified in recent months, partially influenced by geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing US-Iran situation. Concurrently, the collective share of traditional Gulf suppliers has experienced a notable decline, plummeting from over 55% in 2022 to below 30% by June 2026. The instability in the Middle East and the ensuing disruptions to global supply chains have further cemented Russia’s pivotal role in fulfilling India’s burgeoning energy demands.
The potential enactment of proposed US legislation regarding Russian sanctions poses a significant dilemma for India. Should these sanctions materialize, India could face additional tariffs, potentially as high as 100%, if it continues to import Russian energy. Srivastava articulated the challenging choice India might confront: either scale back its Russian oil purchases or risk its export markets in the US. Nevertheless, he acknowledged India’s limited flexibility for an abrupt policy shift.
Replacing a supplier that currently accounts for more than half of India’s imported crude would be an arduous, costly, and potentially disruptive undertaking. Alternative suppliers might not possess the immediate capacity to provide comparable volumes or offer equally advantageous commercial terms. Any drastic reduction in Russian crude imports could lead to an increase in India’s overall oil import bill, disrupt the operations of its refineries, exacerbate the trade deficit, and fuel inflationary pressures. Furthermore, it could deepen the country’s reliance on the already volatile West Asian region, as Srivastava cautioned.
In light of these considerations, the GTRI founder advocated for India to persist in purchasing Russian crude oil. He argued that discounted Russian crude has played a crucial role in lowering India’s import costs, diversifying its energy sources, and bolstering its energy security. Therefore, India should continue to procure Russian oil as long as it remains commercially viable and adheres to all applicable regulations. Srivastava concluded by asserting that American tariff threats should not dictate India’s energy policy. He believes that any disagreements with Washington should be resolved through resolute negotiations rather than unilateral concessions that would elevate India’s energy costs and undermine its strategic autonomy.
