Iran Signals Shift to Offensive Stance as US Ceasefire Memorandum Expires
Tehran, Iran – As a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Washington officially expires today, Iranian authorities have signaled a potential shift from a defensive posture to a more offensive approach in their ongoing conflict with the United States. This development comes amidst escalating tensions, particularly surrounding control of the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
Brigadier General Yadollah Javani, head of the political bureau of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), conveyed this significant change in rhetoric during a state television appearance on Sunday night. He asserted that IRGC forces are prepared to undertake "whatever action is needed to defend the country." While acknowledging that the conflict was initiated by the "enemy," Javani ominously added, "our efforts have been defensive, although they might take on an offensive aspect." He refrained from detailing specific offensive measures but cautioned opponents to anticipate "strategic surprises."
The MoU, which aimed to establish a ceasefire between Iran and the US, effectively collapsed last month following a resurgence of fighting. Its official expiration today marks a critical juncture in the protracted confrontation.
Further emphasizing Iran’s readiness for a more aggressive stance, IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi last week identified potential targets for retaliatory action. These include US and regional allies’ critical infrastructure such as energy networks, power plants, and internet-connected systems, should the US strike Iran’s civilian infrastructure. Hardline Iranian politicians and media have even discussed the feasibility of a ground incursion against US interests in Bahrain and Kuwait if Washington were to launch an invasion of Iran. However, analysts remain skeptical about the practicality and risks of such operations, especially given the lack of recent indications that the US is planning ground operations in Iran.
This assertive shift in Iran’s military doctrine follows the consolidation of power by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, a known hardliner, who recently appointed several IRGC veterans and confidants to key military and security positions. Notably, Major General Ahmad Vahidi’s ascent to commander-in-chief of the IRGC was hailed by Khamenei as a demonstration of "maximum deterrence" combined with readiness for "powerful offensive operations against the enemy." Vahidi, for his part, declared that Khamenei’s leadership and the Iranian armed forces had successfully "brought to its knees the most heavily-armed army in world history" after US and Israeli strikes in Iran on February 28 ignited fierce fighting.
The rhetoric from Washington has also remained unyielding. US President Donald Trump reiterated his claim on Friday that Iran had been defeated in the war, citing a naval blockade acting as a "wall of steel." He provocatively suggested that the Strait of Hormuz would "pretty soon" be declared US territory. While the White House later downplayed this comment as a joke, it drew a swift and severe response from Iran. Army chief Amir Hatami announced a $30,000 reward for any man who kills or captures a US soldier involved in ground operations on Iranian soil, with women offered double the reward for such an accomplishment. Hatami, referencing recent Iranian attacks on US forces in Jordan, declared, "Our hands are open in terms of reaching the aggressors and they will become more open through our initiatives."
Mohsen Rezaee, the influential secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and an adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, posited that the Trump administration might have considered ground operations on Iranian territory but was deterred by "half-baked plans." Rezaee noted that during a two-week flare-up in July, US Central Command avoided striking Tehran or northern Iran, instead targeting approximately 50 cities across 15 provinces. He believes these air raids were designed to pave the way for a ground assault aimed at seizing control of the Strait of Hormuz and potentially reaching nuclear facilities in Isfahan, where highly-enriched uranium is suspected to be buried under rubble from US strikes.
Rezaee detailed the extent of the US strikes, mentioning bridges, roads, maritime control towers, radar and other coastal installations, and military facilities were hit to disrupt logistical supplies to southern Iran. He argued that the US underestimated the challenge of a ground invasion, stating, "They had not calculated that to land troops for the Strait of Hormuz, it’s not doable with 40,000-50,000 soldiers, you must bring at least 100,000 people… You must cross the Zagros Mountains and be able to pass the Fars province."
Iranian media and military commanders have consistently reported on contingency plans to defend individual islands and coastal areas in southern Iran, including critical oil export terminals on Kharg Island, from potential US seizure. Rapid-response units have been deployed to reinforce Iranian territories around the Strait of Hormuz. Army spokesman Mohammad-Reza Akraminia last week vowed to prevent any foreign troops from landing on Iranian soil. "If the Americans enter one of our islands, we will certainly target them on our own islands, let alone on other countries’ soil," he declared on state TV.
Beyond direct confrontation with the US, authorities have also signaled their readiness to address any unrest provoked by separatist groups near Iran’s western borders with Iraq and Turkey, or in the east with Pakistan and Afghanistan. The IRGC has reportedly strengthened defenses and continued missile and drone strikes against armed groups based in Iraqi Kurdistan.
Iran Shrugs Off Expired MoU
Despite the formal expiration, IRGC political chief Javani stated on Monday that the Strait of Hormuz would only be fully reopened once Washington fulfills commitments agreed upon in the June MoU.
However, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs downplayed the significance of the MoU’s expiration, stating that a two-month ceasefire window was not explicitly mentioned in the document. The ministry also dismissed any particular impact of the expiration on the war with the US or ongoing talks with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz. "It has been proven many times that the Islamic Republic of Iran is not a party to devise its policies under pressure, ultimatums and deadlines. We decide based on our evaluations of what guarantees national interests and security," a ministry spokesperson told reporters.
The spokesperson attributed delays in reaching an arrangement for the partial reopening of Hormuz with Oman to legal and technical complexities, the involvement of multiple actors, and "ill-wishing parties" seeking to undermine the process.
Meanwhile, Parliament speaker and chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, delivered a speech on Sunday night hailing the MoU as a "document of pride and victory in the field of diplomacy." Ghalibaf insisted that the Islamic Republic had emerged "victorious," both politically and militarily, from the conflict with the US and Israel. "I don’t mean that we destroyed their armies, I mean that they attacked us while clearly and repeatedly citing nine objectives, but did not achieve any of these goals at any level. That was the biggest abject failure for the US and the Zionist regime," he asserted. Despite his pronouncements of victory, Ghalibaf has yet to convince the Iranian leadership to agree on a long-term diplomatic resolution to end the war with the US.
