The global maritime industry, long considered one of the hardest sectors to decarbonize, is currently navigating a paradoxical juncture. While technical milestones in alternative-fuel shipping are being achieved at an unprecedented pace, the financial momentum required to sustain this transition is showing signs of stalling. A new report, Climate Action in Shipping: Progress Towards Shipping’s 2030 Breakthrough, produced by the UCL Energy Institute and the Getting to Zero Coalition, highlights a widening gap between technological readiness and the commercial reality of the shipping market.
As the industry approaches critical 2030 emissions targets, the report reveals that the primary challenge has pivoted from engineering innovation to acute investment risk. While the first wave of alternative-fuel vessels has moved from experimental trials to commercial service, the long-term order book for these ships is shrinking. Vessels capable of using scalable zero-emission fuels accounted for just 5.7% of newly ordered tonnage in the latest assessment, a sharp decline from 9.5% in previous periods. This drop is particularly concerning given the longevity of maritime assets; vessels ordered today will remain in operation for decades, effectively locking in their carbon footprints.
The technological advancements, however, remain tangible. The infrastructure supporting methanol, for instance, has grown significantly, with the number of ports offering methanol bunkering rising from 19 to 29—a 53% increase. The industry has also successfully completed its first ship-to-ship ammonia bunkering operation, moving away from theoretical designs toward operational reality. Furthermore, the total tonnage of methanol-capable vessels in service has more than tripled, reaching 7.7 million gross tons.
Despite these successes, the “midstream” of the supply chain—the fuel itself—remains a critical bottleneck. In 2025, the production of qualifying zero-emission fuels stood at less than 0.02 exajoules, falling more than 80% short of the 0.10 exajoule milestone. Current modeling suggests that, without a dramatic acceleration, the industry may not meet its minimum 2030 production requirements until at least 2032 or 2035. Achieving these goals would require a thirtyfold increase in production capacity, a feat that currently lacks the necessary financial backing.
The core of this investment malaise appears to be a breakdown in the commercial ecosystem. Shipowners, tasked with bearing the upfront cost of expensive green-fuel vessels, are finding less support from the cargo owners who rely on their services. The premium that cargo owners are willing to pay for low-carbon shipping has slipped from 4.5% to 3%, while the percentage of clients expecting to pay a premium within the next five years dropped by 20 percentage points, falling to 45%.
This cooling interest has created a vicious cycle of risk aversion. Without robust, long-term purchasing agreements from cargo owners, fuel producers cannot secure the financing required to scale production facilities. Simultaneously, shipowners are hesitant to commission alternative-fuel vessels if the fuel supply remains uncertain and the demand for “green” transport is lukewarm.
Financial data reflects this hesitation. Sustainable debt issuance specific to the shipping sector fell from $3.4 billion in 2024 to approximately $3 billion in 2025. While climate transparency has improved—with 29% of global ship financing now covered by transparent, IMO-aligned climate disclosures under the Poseidon Principles—the report notes that transparency is not a proxy for capital deployment. Greater reporting visibility has not yet translated into the massive infusion of capital needed to build out the global bunkering infrastructure and production facilities.
As the maritime sector faces intensifying pressure to align with international climate goals, the findings serve as a sobering reality check. The progress made in engine technology and port readiness proves that decarbonization is technically feasible. However, until the financial risks are distributed more equitably across the supply chain and regulatory certainty increases, the industry’s transition to net-zero remains at risk of falling behind the pace required to combat global climate change.
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