Finland Sets Sights on 2040: New Defence Study Maps Future Security Landscape
The Finnish Defence Forces’ research institute has unveiled the findings of “FIN FOE 2040,” a comprehensive foresight study designed to steer the nation’s long-term defence planning. As the geopolitical landscape undergoes a profound transformation, the report offers a strategic roadmap for navigating a future defined by systemic instability and rapid technological change.
The study identifies five primary drivers that will dictate Finland’s security trajectory over the next two decades: the intensification of great power competition, the rise of emerging security threats, the evolution of Finland’s alliances, advancements in military technology, and the ongoing adaptation of the nation’s “comprehensive security” model.
Two Scenarios, One Goal
Researchers have synthesized these driving forces into two primary future scenarios: “Uncertainty Continues” and “War in Europe.” To ensure a robust understanding of potential risks, the study also incorporates four “What if” scenarios, which provide alternative pathways and broaden the scope of contingency planning.
Across all models, five recurring characteristics emerge: a reliance on multi-layered military defence, the necessity of selective partnerships, and the integration of the defence apparatus into the broader fabric of society. Crucially, the report notes that a “rapidly changing and unstable security environment” has become the new normal.
Moving Beyond the “War vs. Peace” Binary
A significant takeaway from the research is the urgent need to reconsider traditional assumptions. For decades, much of the Finnish legislative and organizational framework has relied on a clear-cut distinction between times of peace and states of war.
The study warns that this binary is increasingly obsolete, particularly when facing adversaries who intentionally blur the lines between these states. To remain effective, Finland must move away from reactive, short-term crisis management—which risks keeping the defense system in a permanent state of overload—and toward a more fluid, integrated approach.
Strengthening Resilience in the NATO Era
While the report calls for an evolution in doctrine, it reaffirms that Finland’s long-standing tradition of societal resilience remains a foundational strength. However, it also offers a cautionary note: policymakers should avoid overly cynical or fatalistic interpretations of “survival,” warning that such mindsets can become self-fulfilling prophecies.
The transition to NATO membership is viewed as a net positive, providing Finland with greater agency to shape its own future. By leveraging collective security and fostering deeper cooperation with its allies, Finland is better positioned to manage the complexities of its future operating environment while maintaining the structural integrity of its national defense.
By proactively addressing these challenges, the Finnish Defence Forces aim to transition from a reactive posture to one of sustained, long-term strategic readiness, ensuring the country remains secure in an increasingly unpredictable world.
