DNIPRO — The Russian strike on a passenger train at the Dnipro Railway Station last Thursday, which left at least 14 people dead and dozens more injured, has been condemned by international observers as a clear-cut war crime. While the devastation has sent shockwaves through Ukraine, military experts suggest that the brutal tactic is unlikely to achieve Moscow’s strategic goal of breaking the Ukrainian population’s will to resist.
Retired Estonian Brigadier General Alar Laneman, speaking on ETV’s “Ukraina stuudio,” characterized the attack as part of a calculated, albeit futile, psychological warfare strategy. Laneman noted that the Kremlin frequently lays the groundwork for such strikes by launching sophisticated disinformation campaigns. By falsely claiming that civilian infrastructure is being used to transport military personnel or weaponry, Russia attempts to legitimize the targeting of non-military sites in the eyes of their own public and the international community.
“They will claim, for example, that Ukraine is planning a provocation by attacking one of its own cities, villages, or critical facilities,” Laneman explained. “Then the attack happens, and they follow up with, ‘See, Ukraine did it.’”
In the lead-up to the Dnipro tragedy, Russian state media had disseminated accusations that Ukraine was utilizing its railway network for military logistics. However, investigators and local authorities on the ground confirmed the target was a passenger train, underscoring the intentional nature of the civilian-focused assault.
“It is a textbook war crime,” Laneman stated. “It is evidently intended to shock and mentally wear down the population, with the hope that the Ukrainian public will pressure the government into surrendering. We have seen this throughout the war.”
The challenge for Ukraine remains the sheer scale of the frontline and the impossibility of shielding all civilian infrastructure from a relentless barrage of missiles and drones. According to Laneman, while it is difficult to protect facilities like railways—which are not typically viewed as legitimate targets in conventional warfare—history has consistently shown that terror-based strategies fail to achieve their intended political outcomes.
“As a rule, these mass attacks do not have the effect of breaking a population’s resolve to resist,” Laneman said. “They simply don’t have that effect.”
The general also addressed the broader tactical landscape, pointing to the ongoing situation in Oleshky. While he acknowledged the success of a recent ceasefire that allowed for the safe evacuation of residents, he warned that such pauses are often weaponized by Moscow. “Russia is very, very resourceful when it comes to exploiting any opportunity,” Laneman cautioned, suggesting that Russian forces likely used the lull in fighting to reposition troops and bolster their tactical positions.
As the war enters this increasingly grim phase, observers maintain that Russia’s reliance on atrocities remains a sign of their inability to secure victory on the battlefield.
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