Apple Projected to Ship 10 Million Foldable iPhones in Inaugural Year Despite High Price Tag
As anticipation reaches a fever pitch ahead of Apple’s September 9 “Surprise and shine” event, industry analysts are turning their focus to the potential impact of the company’s first foray into the foldable smartphone market. According to a new report from Bloomberg citing data from IDC, Apple is expected to make a massive splash with its upcoming book-style foldable device.
Despite a rumored eye-watering price tag of approximately $2,500, analysts are bullish on the device’s market reception. Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC, projects that Apple will deliver more than 10 million shipments within the first year of the product’s availability.
Challenging the Foldable Status Quo
The foldable market has long been dominated by Samsung, but the entry of the tech giant is set to shift the competitive landscape significantly. While Samsung’s recently released Galaxy Z Fold 8—which carries a $1,899 starting price—has been the gold standard for the “passport-style” form factor, analysts believe Apple’s brand power will quickly erode that dominance.
Counterpoint Research projections suggest that while Samsung held a 40% share of the foldable market in 2025, that figure is expected to slide to 32% by the end of 2026. Conversely, Apple is forecast to capture a 25% share of total foldable shipments in 2026 alone, demonstrating just how quickly the “iPhone Ultra” (the rumored name for the foldable flagship) is expected to gain traction.
Market Growth and Future Outlook
IDC’s latest analysis highlights the vital role the foldable iPhone will play in stabilizing and growing the overall industry. The firm notes that Apple’s arrival will effectively “avert a double-digit percentage decline” for the foldable category this year. Instead of a contraction, the market is now expected to grow by 12.6% this year, with that momentum accelerating to an 18% increase by 2027.
Long-term, the outlook remains even more aggressive. IDC predicts that Apple will eventually command a 40% share of all foldable smartphone shipments by 2027.
A Steep Barrier to Entry
The success of the iPhone Ultra remains one of the most debated topics in consumer electronics. While 10 million units would be a monumental achievement for a first-generation device at a $2,500 price point, some consumer surveys suggest that price may be a major hurdle for the average user.
Nevertheless, as the industry looks toward the September 9 event, the consensus among researchers is clear: the arrival of the foldable iPhone is not just a milestone for Apple, but a transformative moment that will dictate the trajectory of the entire smartphone market for years to come.
