Six Months of Conflict: Assessing the Economic Winners and Losers of the US-Iran War

Six months into the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the global economy has proven surprisingly resilient. While initial projections warned of catastrophic financial fallout, the world has largely avoided the worst-case scenarios, even as the war continues to exert pressure on energy costs, trade routes, and global food security.

The geopolitical instability initially sent shockwaves through international markets. Following the commencement of military actions on February 28, Brent crude prices spiked from $72 per barrel to a staggering peak of nearly $120, driven by fears of supply disruptions in the critical Strait of Hormuz. While energy prices have since retreated, they remain elevated compared to pre-war levels, creating a complex, two-speed global economy defined by both systemic friction and unexpected growth.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the current landscape is a tug-of-war: the war acts as a drag on global growth, while an explosion of enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) has served as a powerful economic offset.

The Winners: Who Capitalized on the Crisis?

1. Investors Who Maintained Their Positions
Early in the conflict, global stock markets faced severe volatility, with the Dow Jones and Nasdaq entering correction territory. However, those who resisted panic selling have been rewarded. Since their late-March lows, the Dow has climbed 19%, the S&P 500 has risen 22%, and the Nasdaq has soared by 27%. Analysts note that the market’s rebound signals that investors are prioritizing the AI-driven tech boom over the immediate economic disruptions caused by the war.

2. The Renewable Energy and EV Sector
The volatility of fossil fuel prices has catalyzed a shift toward energy independence. Electric vehicle (EV) adoption has skyrocketed, with year-on-year sales growth hitting 110% in Singapore, 180% in New Zealand, and 300% in Colombia. The International Energy Agency now projects that EVs will comprise 29% of global vehicle sales by 2026. Experts argue that the current crisis is accelerating the transition to green energy faster than any government policy framework could have achieved alone.

3. US Defense Contractors
Unsurprisingly, the surge in military demand has bolstered the defense sector. Companies like Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, and Northrop Grumman have secured significant contracts for missile defense, drone technology, and satellite systems. Notably, high-profile firms, including Elon Musk’s SpaceX and various entities linked to recent political administration initiatives, have seen increased activity as they provide tactical support and military hardware to replace depleted stockpiles.

The Losers: Who Bore the Brunt?

1. The Aviation and Travel Industry
Airlines have become the most visible victims of the conflict. Because jet fuel prices are projected to average 70% higher in 2026 than in 2025, carriers have been forced to pass costs on to passengers through higher fares and increased baggage fees. Experts, including Columbia University economist Brett House, suggest that relief for travelers is unlikely in the near term.

2. Global Food Security and Farmers
The reach of the conflict extends to the dinner table. With energy costs driving up the price of fertilizers, agricultural productivity is under threat. The World Bank reported that fertilizer prices peaked at 44% above pre-war levels, forcing farmers in developing nations to reduce usage, which threatens future crop yields. The UN World Food Programme has issued stark warnings, noting that a single supply chain disruption in the Strait of Hormuz can have direct, life-altering consequences for the world’s most vulnerable populations.

3. Consumers and Import-Dependent Economies
Ultimately, the economic impact of the war has been unevenly distributed. While financial markets have largely rebounded, households and nations heavily reliant on Persian Gulf energy imports continue to grapple with persistent inflation. As the cost of shipping and insurance remains high, the global economy remains in a fragile state, balancing market optimism against the harsh realities of disrupted logistics and increased consumer costs.